The Legacy of the Good Friday Agreement #44 #cong24 #legacy

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1. In a world increasingly focused on data and AI, numerical concepts are important for framing human behaviour. I describe how the idea of‘event time’ measured based on significance of events rather than calendar time may be applicable when considering the legacy of the Good Friday Agreement.
2. In particular, on an event time basis the human experience of how this period impacted daily lives and the subsequent recovery may have increased in significance relative to historical associations.
3. This has given rise to transformative identity shifts such as “I am a child of the peace process” or “I am both a British and an Irish citizen”.
4. As the world faces numerous challenges such as the climate crisis the event based identity shifts experienced as a result of the Good Friday Agreement may have implications across the world.

Jamie Eustace has worked in the computerized investment management industry for over 15 years with a particular emphasis on analysing behavioural patterns with regards to stock market investing. He first became interested in the applications of data and models to human behaviour while an undergraduate was at Trinity College Dublin where he majored in Political Science.

You can connect with Jeffrey on email.

By Jamie Eustace

Associated with Cong is the processional cross made for the third last High King Ireland Tairrdelbach Ua Conchobair whose reigned ended in 1156, thirteen years prior to the Norman Invasion of Ireland in 1169.

One significant feature of the Good Friday Agreement is that not since that time has there been a framework for the creation of a united Ireland agreed to by all political forces on the island, moreover one achieved by peaceful means.

One legacy of the Good Friday Agreement is it that links to the wider political objectives and historical links like this.

Another legacy, potentially more important links to the recent human experience and the transformations therein. I explore this through the lens of numerical concepts as the world increasingly shifts towards data and technology driven outcomes.

Please note: the author was not personally impacted by the violence that occurred in Northern Ireland between 1968 and 1998. All respect, care and consideration is to those that were.

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These are lines from the 1979 song ‘The Healing has Begun’ by Belfast born Van Morrison:

“And we’ll walk down the avenue in style”

“And we’ll walk down the avenue and we’ll smile”

And we’ll say:

“Baby, ain’t it all worthwhile when the healing has begun?”

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There is a concept in numerical modelling called ‘event time’. This makes the distinction between calendar time, measured in days, weeks, months, years etc and time which is measured based on the volume and significance of activity.

One common application of this in financial markets when computer trading systems are predicting market moves it’s often better to calibrate to event time – not calendar time. If major news has hit the market in the past day, it’s more effective to calibrate models based on this recent high volume period than include what might have been uneventful days in the week prior.

This can also be applied in other areas, like politics.

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Looking at the peace agreement in Northern Ireland and the period preceding it, the point could be made that the past half century or so have represented significant event time. In particular, this relates to how day-to-day lives have been impacted by the period relative to periods preceding it.

The impact of this is that definitions in particular regarding identity may be framed from the more recent high event period.

For example, some might say:

“I am a child of the peace process”

or

“I am both an Irish and British citizen”

The Alliance Party of Northern Ireland represents this tendency as it doesn’t identify with any outcome regarding the political status of Northern Ireland.

This is nothing short of a transformative shift and has major implications across the world.

As the world faces issues like the Climate Crisis it’s possible further event based identity shifts may happen.

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From the above mentioned song there is also the line:

“And you feel it in your heart and it grows and grows”